Informist Poll

Nifty 200 companies' profit seen low amid subdued sales

Informist, Friday, Apr 21, 2023

By Rajesh Gajra

MUMBAI – Operating in the shadow of weak macros worldwide and collapse of some banks in the US, Indian companies from the Nifty 200 universe are likely to have found the going challenging in the March quarter. Most companies in the Nifty 200 pack are likely to have seen demand slowing down, prices under pressure, and profits contracting or subdued.

In Jan-Mar, the total of net profit of Nifty 200 companies is likely to have gone up by 8% on year while the aggregate revenue from operations is estimated to have increased 11%, according to an average of estimates by 18 brokerage firms. Sequentially, the Nifty 200 companies are likely to have recorded an 18% rise in net profit even as revenue is expected to be up by just 3%.

These estimates by analysts of major brokerage firms point to a depressing scenario by and large with exceptions to the trend being select oil and gas companies, hotels, banks, and companies from travel and tourism, and automobile sectors.

TURBULENCE

Even though there are mixed views on the quantum of drag corporate profits would have come under in Jan-Mar, the fact that they would likely be far away from robust is not disputed by any analyst.

According to brokerage Nuvama Institutional Equities, if oil and marketing companies are removed from the list, the story would largely be same–earnings under duress. "Metals and cement are likely to post another quarter of contraction, and apart from them, profits are likely to slow down for industrials, and remain weak for durables," the brokerage said in its Jan-Mar earnings preview of companies from its coverage universe.

This turbulence is also visible in the analyst estimates compiled by Informist for Nifty 200 companies. Seven metal companies, for instance, are seen reporting a 7% on-year fall in their aggregate topline. Their aggregate net profit is seen diving 56% on year.

Worst affected among the metal companies as per the estimates are heavyweights like Tata Steel Ltd, Vedanta Ltd, and Hindalco Industries Ltd. Brokerage Axis Securities counts weak selling prices, reset of annual contracts during the quarter, and the fear of a slowdown in world economies as the factors afflicting the metal sector's earnings performance in Jan-Mar.

Cement companies' topline is not seen hit but their bottomline is seen sharply lower. The aggregate sales estimates for seven cement companies are seen rising 14% on year while the net profit is likely to fall 27%. Brokerage ICICI Direct expects aggregate volume of cement companies in its universe to register a 9.3% on-year increase in Jan-Mar but the sales realisation is seen affected by just 2% increase in cement prices.

Different factors pulling engineering and capital goods companies in the March quarter would have likely led to a mixed performance among them. While Larsen & Toubro Ltd and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd are seen reporting revenue growth in low single-digit numbers, Cummins India Ltd and Honeywell Automation Ltd are seen posting revenue growth on year in the 23-25% range. On the aggregate, seven companies from the sector are likely to have recorded a revenue increase of 7% on year and flat on quarter.

Even finance companies are likely to have followed the same path. The bottomlines of Bajaj Finance Ltd, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, L&T Finance Holdings, and Shriram Finance Ltd are seen rising 21-61% on year while those of Life Insurance Corporation of India, LIC Housing Finance Ltd, Muthoot Finance Ltd, and SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd, are seen in the red. On the aggregate, their bottomline growth would likely come in at 6% while topline growth will likely have been double of that.

The sector's margins outlook for the March quarter by some analysts is upbeat. Brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher sees them as stable "as strong disbursements and yield transmission cushion rising cost of funds."

STANDING OUT

Automobile sector companies in Nifty 200 are seen reporting strong earnings numbers. The aggregate sales of 18 companies from the sector would likely have gone up by 27% on year and their aggregate net profit nearly doubled.

"The Indian automobile sector has seen a significant demand improvement (during Jan-Mar) with most categories witnessing encouraging traction on a YoY (on year) basis, led by double-digit volume growth, in the PV/CV (passenger and commercial vehicles) segment," said Axis Securities.

Fast moving consumer goods sector would likely have seen consumer demand become circumspect in the rising inflation environment, but would still manage to post reasonable growth numbers. The aggregate sales of 14 FMCG companies are likely to rise 11% on year and net profit is seen rising 14% on year. However, sequentially, the earnings are expected to disappoint with the sales up by just 2% and net profit down by 3%.

The decent earnings numbers of the sector would be influenced by heavyweight Hindustan Unilever Ltd whose sales is estimated to rise 16% on year and net profit seen up 11%. Sequentially, HUL's sales are seen up by just 2% and net profit up by just 3%.

Banks will likely to fare better than their peers from non-banking financial sector with a 33% on-year jump in aggregate net profit of 16 banks from the Nifty 200.

THE ROAD AHEAD

Analysts are sure that 2023-24 (Apr-Mar) will pan out differently compared with 2022-23 but differ on the contours. Nuvama Institutional Equities sees a risk to consensus expectation among analysts of a strong profit growth in 2023-24. Demand deterioration is broadening from exports to some segments of domestic consumption, and this shall eventually weigh on credit growth and capital expenditure by companies, it said.

Axis Securities said it will be keenly watching management commentaries on demand and margins outlook for next one year.

Analysts expect inflationary pressures to affect consumer durable companies. Although automobiles demand is seen continuing to be decent, there are uncertainties on consumer spending if the inflation increases. Challenges are seen subsisting for metals, cement and chemicals sectors while there will likely be a diverse trend in companies in capital goods, pharma, and oil and gas sectors.

Following are the Jan-Mar consensus earnings estimates of companies that constitute the National Stock Exchange's Nifty 200 index. These estimates are based on reports compiled by Informist Media from 18 brokerage houses.

Note:
+ Consolidated Figure
* Net interest Income
# Net premium income
Y-o-Y: Year-on-Year
Q-o-Q: Quarter-on-Quarter
N.A.: Not Available
Rs: Rupees

Estimates from:

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd, Axis Securities, BNP Paribas, Elara Capital, Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd, HDFC Securities Ltd, ICICI direct.com Research, ICICI Securities Ltd, IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd, Jefferies Group, Kotak Institutional Equities, Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd, Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd, Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd, PhillipCapital (India) Pvt Ltd, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd, Sharekhan Ltd and YES Securities (India) Ltd.

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